Amid the global COVID-19 pandemic this summer, parents, teachers and administrators grappled with finding the best way forward into the new school year for students. Based on a number of factors including community spread, each school district had to make their own best possible decision on whether students would return to class online, in person or via a hybrid model. Now, data is trickling in on transmission rates among students who are participating in some level of in-person learning, and in some pockets of the country, cases appear to be surprisingly low.
Sara Johnson, associate professor of pediatrics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, tells Care.com, “Our very preliminary data look fairly encouraging. We know that there will be cases — schools are likely to reflect the level of infection in the communities where their students and staff live. We’re not, however, seeing a lot of evidence for spread in schools.”
Here, the factors that experts say are driving their cautious optimism and what this might mean for schoolchildren moving forward.
What existing data shows (so far)
On September 21, the New York Times reported statewide totals for COVID-19 cases in K-12 schools in the states that currently report them. Without official federal tracking, the monitoring cases at every level — school, district, state and nationwide — is scattered. The Times points out that schools started at different times, some states are reporting in ways that understate their totals (for instance, Oregon and North Carolina will only report outbreaks if there are five or more cases in a school), many cases are never identified and some districts aren’t providing data or tracking cases at all.
Meanwhile, researchers at Brown University have developed a new National COVID-19 School Response Data Dashboard, created to track COVID-19 cases in Pre-K-12 schools. The Washington Post reports that the tool tracked infections over a two-week period beginning August 31 and found:
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0.23% of students had a confirmed or suspected case.
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0.49% of teachers had a confirmed or suspected case.
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0.078% of students had a confirmed case.
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0.15% of teachers had a confirmed case.
Emily Oster, an economics professor at Brown University who helped create the dashboard tells the Post that the school infection rates — which are “much lower” than those in the surrounding community — look “reassuring” and suggest that “school openings may be less risky than they expected.”
Still, given a dearth of federal monitoring and schools and states that are failing to provide any data whatsoever, it’s hard to know the full scope of the situation. “Unfortunately, we have really incomplete data about what’s happening in schools that are offering in-person instruction,” says Johnson. “There is currently no way that information about cases is being tracked systematically across the country.”
What’s behind these results
Teachers’ union officials tell the Post that rates appear to be lower in school districts where everyone is required to wear face coverings and physical distancing between students has been enforced. Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, surmises to the outlet that the viral photos of unmasked students packed into hallways in Georgia schools “scared people enough” to stick to safety protocols. (It’s worth noting that the school in question reported at least nine COVID-19 cases in the last week of August and switched to online-only instruction while the school was disinfected and officials assessed the situation.)
Johnson agrees that based on limited data from schools and day cares, masks are important. “People absolutely should be wearing masks in schools,” she notes. “Reducing density in classrooms and schools, spacing kids as far apart as possible for learning, hand-washing and routine cleaning are also really important.”
She adds that student cohorts are also helpful. “The smaller the group of ‘close contacts’ that a student has, the smaller the number of potential exposures if someone does turn up positive,” says Johnson. “By keeping these cohorts separate, we can really help to contain any potential spread.”
But because the data is so limited, it’s hard to say which safety measures might be the most important. “When we only have a window into a tiny part of what’s going on, we don’t get the full benefit of seeing what’s working best and what practices and procedures need to be changed to keep everyone healthy and safe,” says Johnson.
At the same time, the upcoming cold and flu season could present new challenges, given that symptoms of COVID overlap with flu, colds and some other conditions. “As these other viruses circulate, it becomes more of a challenge to sort out who might have COVID,” notes Johnson. “That’s why it’s really critical that we all get our flu shot this year.”
How this could inform broader school guidance
Whether for academic or social reasons or the fact that it gives parents a break or time to do their jobs uninterrupted, everyone wants kids to get back to school safely. Could these early promising results be a sign that there’s light at the end of the tunnel nationwide?
It depends, according to Johnson. “We are all desperate to get back to life as usual, but we’re just not there yet,” she says. “We should be doing everything we can as parents and community members to keep transmission low in our communities — that means skipping that indoor event, passing on the big family reunion or RSVPing ‘no’ to the indoor birthday party. If we do things now, we are likely to see fewer cases in the community and fewer cases, by extension, in schools.”
If community transmission is low and schools have a solid plan for public health strategies to keep students and staff safe, they can likely begin to open slowly and carefully, says Johnson. “Typically, that means bringing back the youngest students first and those whose needs are hard to serve online — for example, students who receive learning or developmental support, students who are struggling academically,” she notes. “Every family will need to make the choice that reflects their family’s health risks.”
And every community will have to consider how in-person instruction could pose a threat to educators. Since the start of the pandemic, 210 members of the American Federation of Teachers union, including teachers, support staff and retirees across the U.S., have died as a result of the virus. And the New York City Department of Education lost 31 teachers to COVID.
Why every school must proceed with information and caution
That said, a measured approach is clearly called for. As Oster notes to the Post, early numbers don’t suggest that “all places should open schools with no restrictions or anything that comes close to that.” Instead, just as before, it will be up to each school district to determine their unique risk and run with a fitting approach.